FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 17 May 2026
New England Revolution 2–1 Minnesota United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had New England Revolution at 36%, draw at 31%, Minnesota United FC at 33%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward New England Revolution.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Revolution win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
FC win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 1.35
Total 2.76
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Minnesota's razor-thin xG advantage (1.35 vs 1.41) and balanced win odds (33%) make Under 2.5 Goals the highest-conviction play despite modest predicted total."