> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 16 May, 23:30 UTC
New England Revolution vs Minnesota United FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Minnesota's razor-thin xG advantage (1.35 vs 1.41) and balanced win odds (33%) make Under 2.5 Goals the highest-conviction play despite modest predicted total.
Win probability
35.6% home31.4% draw33.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
New England RevolutionstepMinnesota United FC
1.30Base xG · rolling 26-match1.40
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.41Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.35
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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9
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12
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4
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6
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Harry Kane
New England Revolution · Bayern Munich
60%@ 1.67x fair
Bet on Oddschecker →Anytime ScorerPro
Jude Bellingham
New England Revolution · Real Madrid
36%@ 2.78x fair
Bet on Oddschecker →Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
New England Revolution 2–1 Minnesota United FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+