FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 14 May 2026
New England Revolution 0–3 Nashville SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had New England Revolution at 36%, draw at 32%, Nashville SC at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-3. The model's headline call was New England Revolution to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Revolution win
36%
Draw
32%
SC win
32%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.37 – 1.29
Total 2.66
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Nashville's minimal xG advantage (1.29 vs 1.37) contradicts their equal win probability, making the 80% draw-or-away bet the decisive overlay."