> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Wednesday 13 May, 23:30 UTC
New England Revolution vs Nashville SC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Nashville's minimal xG advantage (1.29 vs 1.37) contradicts their equal win probability, making the 80% draw-or-away bet the decisive overlay.
Win probability
35.6% home32.1% draw32.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
New England RevolutionstepNashville SC
1.26Base xG · rolling 26-match1.34
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.37Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.29
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Harry Kane
New England Revolution · Bayern Munich
60%@ 1.67x fair
Bet on Oddschecker →Anytime ScorerPro
Jude Bellingham
New England Revolution · Real Madrid
36%@ 2.78x fair
Bet on Oddschecker →Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
New England Revolution 0–3 Nashville SC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+