> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Premier League·Saturday 02 May, 14:00 UTC
Newcastle vs Brighton
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
35.9% home28.1% draw36.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
NewcastlestepBrighton
1.37Base xG · rolling 26-match1.55
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.48Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.49
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
8
6
3
1
1
8
11
8
4
2
2
6
8
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 12.8% · @ 7.82x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Newcastle 3–1 Brighton
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+