FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Newcastle 3–1 BrightonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Newcastle at 36%, draw at 28%, Brighton at 36%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Newcastle.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Newcastle win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Brighton win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.48 – 1.49
Total 2.97
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 43%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 7.82x
- X2✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓