> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 17 May, 19:00 UTC
Nice vs Metz
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Nice's superior xG (1.63-1.24) and 76% Over 1.5 Goals probability make the total the strongest edge despite relegation-driven desperation neutralizing home advantage.
Win probability
43.5% home30.1% draw26.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
NicestepMetz
1.51Base xG · rolling 26-match1.28
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.63Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.24
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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4
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6
0
6
7
4
2
1
1
9
11
7
3
1
2
8
9
6
2
1
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5
3
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + Over 1.5 Goals + 1X + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 28.9% · @ 3.46x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Nice 0–0 Metz
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+