> MATCH.PREDICT()·NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie·Saturday 02 May, 19:00 UTC
Nijmegen vs Telstar
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
62.2% home18.7% draw19.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
NijmegenstepTelstar
2.74Base xG · rolling 26-match1.72
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.96Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.66
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Home Win + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 34.8% · @ 2.87x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Nijmegen 0–1 Telstar
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+