FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Nijmegen 0–1 TelstarMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Nijmegen at 62%, draw at 19%, Telstar at 19%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Nijmegen to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Nijmegen win
62%
Draw
19%
Telstar win
19%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.96 – 1.66
Total 4.62
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-3.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 94%
✗ Lost
Value
X2
Pre-match: 38%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 19%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.87x
- Home Win✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- Over 7.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✗