Bawler / England: Premier League / Nott'm Forest
Team profile

Nott'm Forest Prediction

Per-game numbers from 54 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.4
a game
12.1 faced
On target
4.7
a game
4.0 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.2
scored – conceded
a game, 54 matches
Next match
44%
Nott'm Forest win chance
vs Leeds · Sat 22 Aug 14:00

Nott'm Forest prediction: for Nott'm Forest's next match — Nott'm Forest vs Leeds on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Nott'm Forest win looks most likely (44%).

Nott'm Forest sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.16 expected goals a game and conceding 1.61. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 1.78 a game against 1.16 expected. Next up is Leeds United, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 44%.

Nott'm Forest in numbers

54 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.2
Home 1.3Away 1.4
5.3
Corners · per game
give up 4.6
Home 6.1Away 4.6
13.4
Shots · per game
faced 12.1
Home 15.7Away 11.2
4.7
On target · per game
faced 4.0
Home 4.7Away 4.6
Last 6 games
24 May
1-1
vs Bournemouth
6-3
17 May
2-3
@ Manchester United
6-7
10 May
1-1
vs Newcastle
2-1
07 May
0-4
@ Aston Villa
3-6
04 May
3-1
@ Chelsea
1-10
30 Apr
1-0
vs Aston Villa
5-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Leeds · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
44%
This team
Draw
29%
Loss
27%
Leeds
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Nott'm Forest compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.16
Below average
Goals against
1.61
Leakier than most
Record
5W 3D 1L
9 settled
Real goals
1.8 – 0.9
For / against, per match
Scored1.16
Conceded1.61

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.16 xG per match · -0.28 above the England: Premier League average of 1.44.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Nott'm Forest fixtures (4/5).

How Bawler has done on Nott'm Forest

67%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 9
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5
Result50%2/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Tue 25 Augvs Leeds United

Recent matches (last 9)

Sun 24 Mayvs AFC Bournemouth
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Manchester United
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 Mayvs Newcastle United
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 04 May@ Chelsea
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 30 Aprvs Aston Villa
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 16 Aprvs FC Porto
High confidence: X2
Thu 09 Apr@ FC Porto
High confidence: 1X
Sun 22 Mar@ Tottenham
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 19 Mar@ Midtjylland
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INOusmane DiomandeCBfrom Sporting CP€40m
INGustavo SáAMfrom Famalicao€20m
INXaver SchlagerCMfrom Free agentFree transfer
INSteven BendaGKfrom Free agentFree transfer
OUTElliot AndersonDMto Manchester City€135m
OUTGustavo SáAMto OlympiacosLoan
OUTJota SilvaLWto OlympiacosLoan
OUTDavid CarmoCBto OlympiacosUndisclosed
OUTStefan OrtegaGKto Free agentFree transfer
OUTAngus GunnGKto Free agentFree transfer
OUTWilly BolyCBto Free agentFree transfer
OUTJoseph GardnerAMto FalkirkUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Nott'm Forest and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly