FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Nottingham Forest 1–1 Newcastle UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Nottingham Forest at 35%, draw at 29%, Newcastle United at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Newcastle United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Forest win
35%
Draw
29%
Actual ✓
United win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.58 – 1.61
Total 3.18
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 40%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.48x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- X2✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✗
- Over 22.5 Shots✓