> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 10 May, 13:00 UTC
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
35.0% home28.8% draw36.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Nottingham ForeststepNewcastle United
1.46Base xG · rolling 26-match1.67
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.58Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.61
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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7
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1
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11
8
5
2
1
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8
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1
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2
1
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1
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1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + X2 + Over 10.5 Corners + Over 22.5 Shots
Model 28.7% · @ 3.48x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Nottingham Forest 1–1 Newcastle United
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+