> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Saturday 23 May, 18:45 UTC
OH Leuven vs Racing Genk
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Genk's league-leading status and 43% win probability justify backing the away side despite marginal xG edge, though Over 1.5 Goals at 84% offers safer value.
Win probability
31.1% home26.2% draw42.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
OH LeuvenstepRacing Genk
1.54Base xG · rolling 26-match2.04
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.66Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.96
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
5
5
3
2
1
1
4
9
9
6
3
1
2
4
7
7
5
2
1
3
2
4
4
3
1
4
1
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
OH Leuven 0–2 Racing Genk
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+