FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 23 May 2026
OH Leuven 0–2 Racing GenkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 23 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had OH Leuven at 31%, draw at 26%, Racing Genk at 43%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Racing Genk.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Leuven win
31%
Draw
26%
Genk win
43%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.66 – 1.96
Total 3.62
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-1.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Genk's league-leading status and 43% win probability justify backing the away side despite marginal xG edge, though Over 1.5 Goals at 84% offers safer value."