> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Wednesday 13 May, 23:30 UTC
Orlando City SC vs Philadelphia Union
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Philadelphia's 1.70 xG dominance over Orlando's 1.36 justifies the away win value at 53% odds against underdog home probability.
Win probability
28.3% home29.1% draw42.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Orlando City SCstepPhiladelphia Union
1.26Base xG · rolling 26-match1.77
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.36Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.70
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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8
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11
9
5
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7
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1
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6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Orlando City SC 4–3 Philadelphia Union
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+