FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 14 May 2026
Orlando City SC 4–3 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Orlando City SC at 28%, draw at 29%, Philadelphia Union at 43%. Against expectation, the match finished 4-3. The model's headline call was Philadelphia Union to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
28%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Union win
43%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 1.70
Total 3.06
Actual
4 – 3
Total 7 (+3.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 88%
✗ Lost
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.25x
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Philadelphia's 1.70 xG dominance over Orlando's 1.36 justifies the away win value at 53% odds against underdog home probability."