> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 22:15 UTC
Paraguay vs Nicaragua
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% probability because Paraguay's 0.60 expected-goals advantage creates consistent attacking pressure that breaks down Nicaragua's defence.
Win probability
47.6% home32.9% draw19.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ParaguaystepNicaragua
1.41Base xG · rolling 26-match0.87
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.45Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.85
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
9
4
1
1
14
12
5
2
2
10
9
4
1
3
5
4
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Paraguay 4–0 Nicaragua
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+