Bawler / Paraguay vs Nicaragua / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Friday, 05 June 2026

Paraguay 4–0 NicaraguaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 05 June 2026

Paraguay
4–0
Paraguay win
Nicaragua
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Paraguay at 48%, draw at 33%, Nicaragua at 20%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Paraguay.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Paraguay win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
33%
Nicaragua win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 0.85
Total 2.31
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.7 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
Bawl OutMixed@ 4.16x
  • Over 1.5 Goals✓
  • 1X✓
  • Over 8.5 Corners–
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% probability because Paraguay's 0.60 expected-goals advantage creates consistent attacking pressure that breaks down Nicaragua's defence."

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