FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Paris FC 0–1 LilleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Paris FC at 45%, draw at 26%, Lille at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Paris FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
45%
Draw
26%
Lille win
29%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.10
Total 2.55
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Paris FC or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 71%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost