Bawler / FRANCE: Ligue 1 / Paris

Team profile

Paris Prediction

Per-game numbers from 34 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots

11.7

a game

12.4 faced

On target

4.0

a game

4.0 faced

Goals

1.4 – 1.5

scored – conceded

a game, 34 matches

Next match

34%

Paris win chance

at Troyes · Sat 22 Aug 18:45

Paris prediction: for Paris's next match — Troyes vs Paris on Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Troyes are favoured (38%).

Paris sit close to the Ligue 1 average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.58 expected goals a game and conceding 1.25. Next up is a trip to Troyes, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 34%.

Paris in numbers

34 competitive matches · friendlies excluded

1.4

Goals · per game

let in 1.5

Home 1.6Away 1.1

4.4

Corners · per game

give up 5.6

Home 5.5Away 3.2

11.7

Shots · per game

faced 12.4

Home 13.5Away 9.9

4.0

On target · per game

faced 4.0

Home 4.5Away 3.4

Last 6 games

17 May

2-1

vs PSG

3-3

10 May

1-2

@ Rennes

2-8

03 May

4-0

vs Brest

7-3

26 Apr

0-1

vs Lille

7-3

19 Apr

3-1

@ Metz

5-6

10 Apr

4-1

vs Monaco

1-11

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Troyes · Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win

34%

Paris

Draw

28%

Loss

38%

Troyes

Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Paris compare with the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for

1.58

Above average

Goals against

1.25

Tighter than most

Record

2W 1D 1L

4 settled

Real goals

1.5 – 1.3

For / against, per match

Scored1.58

Conceded1.25

The grey line on each bar is the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average (1.35 scored, 1.50 conceded).

What the data says

Strong in attack

Averaging 1.58 xG per match · +0.22 above the FRANCE: Ligue 1 average of 1.35.

Solid defensively

Conceding 1.25 xG per match · -0.25 vs league average of 1.50.

Recent matches (last 4)

Sun 17 Mayvs Paris Saint-Germain

Win 23%High confidence: X2

Sun 26 Aprvs Lille

Win 45%High confidence: Paris FC or Draw (Double Chance)

Sun 05 Apr@ Lorient

Win 47%High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Sun 22 Marvs Le Havre

Win 59%High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INPatrick ZabiDMfrom Reims€25m

INDiego CoppolaCBfrom Brighton & Hove Albion€18m

INPablo PagisAMfrom Lorient€15m

INLuca KoleoshoLWfrom Burnley€14m

INLassine SinayokoSTfrom Auxerre€8m

OUTWillem GeubbelsSTto Lecce€5m

OUTMathieu CafaroLWto NantesFree transfer

OUTAlimami GoryLMto AbhaUndisclosed

OUTMathys TourraineRWBto PauUndisclosed

OUTLohann DoucetDMto Vitoria de GuimaraesUndisclosed

OUTJulien LopezAMto CannesFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Paris Prediction

Paris in numbers

Next match

Attack vs defence

Recent matches (last 4)

Transfer activity

More on Paris and the model