> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 17 May, 19:00 UTC
Paris FC vs Paris Saint-Germain
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
PSG's 48% win probability and superior xG (1.76 vs 1.19) justify backing the away victory despite Paris FC's home advantage.
Win probability
23.4% home28.9% draw47.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Paris FCstepParis Saint-Germain
1.10Base xG · rolling 26-match1.83
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.19Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.76
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
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9
8
5
2
1
1
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11
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6
2
1
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7
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1
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1
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1
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1
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6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Paris FC 2–1 Paris Saint-Germain
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+