> MATCH.PREDICT()·Europe: Champions League·Saturday 30 May, 16:00 UTC
Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 74% probability because PSG's 1.62 xG and Arsenal's 1.29 xG combined for a 2.90 total that virtually guarantees multiple strikes.
Win probability
42.1% home30.0% draw27.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Paris Saint-GermainstepArsenal
1.50Base xG · rolling 26-match1.34
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.62Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.29
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
5
7
5
2
1
1
9
11
7
3
1
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9
6
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3
1
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2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Paris Saint-Germain 1–1 Arsenal
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+