FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Philadelphia Union 0–0 Nashville SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 15%, draw at 23%, Nashville SC at 63%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Nashville SC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Union win
15%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
SC win
63%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.92 – 2.13
Total 3.05
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 15%
✗ Lost