> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 02 May, 23:30 UTC
Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
14.5% home22.6% draw62.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Philadelphia UnionstepNashville SC
0.85Base xG · rolling 26-match2.22
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.92Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.13
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
10
11
8
4
2
1
1
4
9
10
7
4
2
1
2
2
4
5
3
2
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Philadelphia Union 0–0 Nashville SC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+