> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Championship·Saturday 02 May, 11:30 UTC
Portsmouth vs Birmingham
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
32.7% home34.5% draw32.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
PortsmouthstepBirmingham
0.97Base xG · rolling 26-match1.09
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.05Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.05
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12
13
7
2
1
1
13
14
7
2
1
2
7
7
4
1
3
2
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Portsmouth 1–1 Birmingham
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+