Bawler / ENGLAND: Championship / Portsmouth
Team profile

Portsmouth Prediction

Per-game numbers from 48 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.4
a game
11.8 faced
On target
3.7
a game
4.1 faced
Goals
1.1 – 1.5
scored – conceded
a game, 48 matches
Next match
21%
Portsmouth win chance
at Lincoln City · Sat 22 Aug 11:30

Portsmouth prediction: for Portsmouth's next match — Lincoln City vs Portsmouth on Saturday 22 Aug, 11:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Lincoln City are favoured (47%).

Portsmouth sit close to the Championship average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.12 expected goals a game and conceding 1.19. Next up is a trip to Lincoln City, where the model has them as underdogs at 21%.

Portsmouth in numbers

48 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.5
Home 1.1Away 1.0
5.7
Corners · per game
give up 5.0
Home 6.3Away 5.0
12.4
Shots · per game
faced 11.8
Home 15.4Away 9.3
3.7
On target · per game
faced 4.1
Home 4.4Away 3.1
Last 6 games
15 Aug
1-3
vs QPR
-
08 Aug
1-3
@ West Ham
7-3
02 May
1-1
vs Birmingham
3-9
25 Apr
3-1
@ Stoke
1-8
21 Apr
1-5
@ Coventry
1-2
18 Apr
1-0
vs Leicester
5-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Lincoln City · Saturday 22 Aug, 11:30 UTC

Win
21%
Portsmouth
Draw
32%
Loss
47%
Lincoln City
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Portsmouth compare with the ENGLAND: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.12
Below average
Goals against
1.19
Tighter than most
Record
1W 3D 2L
6 settled
Real goals
1.2 – 1.7
For / against, per match
Scored1.12
Conceded1.19

The grey line on each bar is the ENGLAND: Championship average (1.27 scored, 1.28 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.12 xG per match · -0.16 above the ENGLAND: Championship average of 1.27.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Portsmouth fixtures (4/4).

How Bawler has done on Portsmouth

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%4/4
Goals (Over/Under)100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sat 15 Augvs Queens Park Rangers
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 08 Aug@ West Ham United
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 02 Mayvs Birmingham
High confidence: X2
Sat 18 Aprvs Leicester
High confidence: 1X
Mon 06 Aprvs Oxford Utd
High confidence: 1X
Fri 03 Apr@ Norwich
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INAbu KamaraLMfrom Hull CityUndisclosed
INMareziSTfrom Free agentFree transfer
INRocco SheinCMfrom FredrikstadUndisclosed
INDaniel BielicaGKfrom NAC Breda€650k
INBenjamin ArthurCBfrom BrentfordLoan
INLuke Brooke-SmithLWfrom Wellington Phoenix€500k
INOdin BaileyDMfrom Salford CityFree transfer
INEoin KennyRWfrom Dundalk€40k
OUTAndre DozzellDMto DC UnitedFree transfer
OUTJordan WilliamsRBto BlackpoolLoan
OUTMakenzie KirkSTto BarnsleyLoan
OUTToby StewardGKto St. JohnstoneLoan
OUTIbane BowatCBto Huddersfield TownUndisclosed
OUTReuben Swannto Braintree TownUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Portsmouth and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly