FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Portsmouth 1–1 BirminghamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Portsmouth at 33%, draw at 34%, Birmingham at 33%. The match ended 1-1 — confirming the model's lean toward a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Portsmouth win
33%
Draw
34%
Actual ✓
Birmingham win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.05 – 1.05
Total 2.10
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 67%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 42%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost