> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Championship·Saturday 02 May, 11:30 UTC
Preston vs Southampton
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
23.8% home27.0% draw49.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
PrestonstepSouthampton
1.07Base xG · rolling 26-match1.83
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.16Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.76
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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10
8
5
2
1
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11
10
6
3
1
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3
1
1
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1
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2
1
1
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1
1
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 14.3% · @ 7.01x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Preston 1–3 Southampton
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+