Bawler / England: Championship / Southampton
Team profile

Southampton Prediction

Per-game numbers from 51 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
14.7
a game
12.6 faced
On target
5.2
a game
3.8 faced
Goals
1.8 – 1.2
scored – conceded
a game, 51 matches
Next match
58%
Southampton win chance
vs Stoke · Sat 22 Aug 14:00

Southampton prediction: for Southampton's next match — Southampton vs Stoke on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Southampton win looks most likely (58%).

Southampton sit close to the Championship average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.52 expected goals a game and conceding 1.38. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.13 a game against 1.52 expected. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Next up is Stoke City, where the model makes them clear favourites at 58%.

Southampton in numbers

51 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.2
Home 1.7Away 1.8
5.7
Corners · per game
give up 4.7
Home 6.3Away 5.2
14.7
Shots · per game
faced 12.6
Home 15.6Away 14.0
5.2
On target · per game
faced 3.8
Home 5.4Away 5.0
Last 6 games
16 Aug
1-2
@ Watford
8-4
08 Aug
2-0
@ Colchester
5-1
08 Aug
2-0
@ Colchester United
5-1
12 May
2-1
vs Middlesbrough
-
09 May
0-0
@ Middlesbrough
1-11
02 May
3-1
@ Preston
5-10

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Stoke · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
58%
Southampton
Draw
27%
Loss
15%
Stoke
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Southampton compare with the England: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.52
Above average
Goals against
1.38
Leakier than most
Record
6W 1D 1L
8 settled
Real goals
2.1 – 0.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.52
Conceded1.38

The grey line on each bar is the England: Championship average (1.49 scored, 1.33 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Southampton fixtures (4/5).

How Bawler has done on Southampton

75%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 8, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5
Result67%2/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Tue 25 Augvs West Ham United

Recent matches (last 8)

Sun 16 Aug@ Watford
High confidence: 1X
Sat 08 Aug@ Colchester United
High confidence: Colchester United or Draw
Tue 12 Mayvs Middlesbrough
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 09 May@ Middlesbrough
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 02 May@ Preston
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 18 Apr@ Swansea
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Tue 07 Apr@ Wrexham
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Marvs Oxford Utd
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INDaniel PeretzGKfrom Bayern München€8m
INDivin MubamaSTfrom Manchester CityLoan
INLewis DobbinSTfrom Aston VillaUndisclosed
INCyle LarinSTfrom MallorcaUndisclosed
INGeorge LongGKfrom Norwich CityFree transfer
OUTShea CharlesDMto Fulham€35m
OUTJay RobinsonAMto MonzaLoan
OUTWilliam SmallboneAMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTRoss StewartSTto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTJoe AriboDMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTCharlie TaylorCBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTDaouda TraoréDMto Le MansLoan
OUTNicholas OyekunleSTto Leyton OrientLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Southampton and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly