> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Puerto Rico vs Saudi Arabia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 80% probability because combined xG of 2.41 projects a genuinely open contest with Saudi Arabia's 1.31 expected output pushing a low-scoring stalemate unlikely.
Win probability
28.0% home33.8% draw38.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Puerto RicostepSaudi Arabia
1.06Base xG · rolling 26-match1.33
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.09Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.31
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
9
12
8
3
1
1
10
13
9
4
1
2
5
7
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Puerto Rico 0–3 Saudi Arabia
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+