Puerto Rico 0–3 Saudi ArabiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 06 June 2026

0–3

Saudi Arabia win

> Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Puerto Rico at 28%, draw at 34%, Saudi Arabia at 38%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Saudi Arabia.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Rico win

28%

Draw

34%

Arabia win

38%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.09 – 1.31

Total 2.41

Actual

0 – 3

Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 80%

✓ Won

Value

Pre-match: 55%

✗ Lost

Dark Horse

Draw

Pre-match: 24%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 80% probability because combined xG of 2.41 projects a genuinely open contest with Saudi Arabia's 1.31 expected output pushing a low-scoring stalemate unlikely."

> More from Bawler