> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Saturday 09 May, 14:00 UTC
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge KSV
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
36.2% home28.0% draw35.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
RAAL La LouvièrestepCercle Brugge KSV
1.54Base xG · rolling 26-match1.72
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.67Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.66
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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6
0
4
6
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3
1
1
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10
8
5
2
1
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8
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2
1
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3
5
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2
1
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1
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2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
RAAL La Louvière 4–1 Cercle Brugge KSV
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+