World Cup 2026 — kicks off 11 June.See predictions →
> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Saturday 09 May, 14:00 UTC

RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge KSV

Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.

Win probability
36.2% home28.0% draw35.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
RAAL La LouvièrestepCercle Brugge KSV
1.54Base xG · rolling 26-match1.72
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.67Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.66
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
6
5
3
1
1
6
10
8
5
2
1
2
5
8
7
4
2
1
3
3
5
4
2
1
4
1
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 1.5 Goals
Model 77.6% · @ 1.29
Take this pick →
VALUEPro
Away Win
Model 40.0% · @ 2.50
Take this pick →
DARK HORSEPro
Draw
Model 27.0% · @ 3.71
Take this pick →
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 9.5 Corners + X2
Model 41.6% · @ 2.40x
Take this pick →

> More predictions for these teams

⚡ Full-time recap available
RAAL La Louvière 41 Cercle Brugge KSV
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
View live picks ▶

Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+