FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 09 May 2026
RAAL La Louvière 4–1 Cercle Brugge KSVMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had RAAL La Louvière at 36%, draw at 28%, Cercle Brugge KSV at 36%. The match ended 4-1 — confirming the model's lean toward RAAL La Louvière.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Louvière win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
KSV win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.67 – 1.66
Total 3.32
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 40%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl OutMixed@ 2.40x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 9.5 Corners–
- X2✗