> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Tuesday 19 May, 18:30 UTC
Racing Genk vs Antwerp
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
League-leading Genk's superior xG (1.99 vs 1.53) and 83% over 1.5 goals probability make the banker pick the safest edge despite balanced win odds.
Win probability
45.8% home26.3% draw27.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Racing GenkstepAntwerp
1.84Base xG · rolling 26-match1.59
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.99Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.53
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 2.5 Goals + Over 22.5 Shots + X2 + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 28.3% · @ 3.53x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Racing Genk 0–0 Antwerp
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+