FT · Belgium: Pro League · Tuesday, 19 May 2026

Racing Genk 00 AntwerpMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 19 May 2026

> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Racing Genk at 46%, draw at 26%, Antwerp at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Racing Genk to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Genk win
46%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Antwerp win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.991.53
Total 3.52
Actual
00
Total 0 (-3.5 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 3.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 49%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.53x
  • Over 2.5 Goals
  • Over 22.5 Shots
  • X2
  • Over 8.5 Corners
> What we said pre-match
"League-leading Genk's superior xG (1.99 vs 1.53) and 83% over 1.5 goals probability make the banker pick the safest edge despite balanced win odds."

> More from Bawler