> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Monday 11 May, 19:00 UTC
Rayo Vallecano vs Girona
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Rayo's superior xG (1.92 vs 1.42) and home advantage justify backing the home win at 53% probability against evenly-matched mid-table opposition.
Win probability
46.4% home27.1% draw26.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Rayo VallecanostepGirona
1.77Base xG · rolling 26-match1.48
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.92Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.42
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 SOT + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 2.5 Goals + 1X
Model 39.5% · @ 2.53x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Girona
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+