FT · Spain: La Liga · Monday, 11 May 2026
Rayo Vallecano 1–1 GironaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 11 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Rayo Vallecano at 46%, draw at 27%, Girona at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Rayo Vallecano to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Vallecano win
46%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Girona win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.92 – 1.42
Total 3.34
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.53x
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
- 1X✓
> What we said pre-match
"Rayo's superior xG (1.92 vs 1.42) and home advantage justify backing the home win at 53% probability against evenly-matched mid-table opposition."