> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 17 May, 17:00 UTC
Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Villarreal's Champions League desperation combined with Rayo's mid-table complacency drives the X2 at 79%, exploiting the draw's underpriced probability.
Win probability
36.5% home31.4% draw32.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Rayo VallecanostepVillarreal
1.32Base xG · rolling 26-match1.38
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.43Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.33
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
6
2
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Rayo Vallecano 2–0 Villarreal
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+