> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Saturday 23 May, 19:00 UTC
Real Betis vs Levante
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Levante's desperate relegation fight drives aggressive play despite weak xG (1.25), creating BTTS No value as Betis' superior defense limits their scoring chances.
Win probability
41.0% home30.9% draw28.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Real BetisstepLevante
1.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.54Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.25
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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1
10
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Real Betis 2–1 Levante
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+