FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 23 May 2026
Real Betis 2–1 LevanteMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 23 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Betis at 41%, draw at 31%, Levante at 28%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Real Betis.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Betis win
41%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Levante win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.54 – 1.25
Total 2.78
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Levante's desperate relegation fight drives aggressive play despite weak xG (1.25), creating BTTS No value as Betis' superior defense limits their scoring chances."