> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Thursday 14 May, 19:30 UTC
Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Real Madrid's 2.03 xG advantage in a title-race must-win heavily favors 1X at 88%, exploiting Oviedo's relegation desperation limiting their attacking threat.
Win probability
59.7% home25.5% draw14.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Real MadridstepReal Oviedo
1.88Base xG · rolling 26-match0.97
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.03Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.94
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
5
2
1
1
10
10
5
1
2
11
10
5
1
3
7
7
3
1
4
4
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
1
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 SOT + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 2.5 Goals + Home Win
Model 26.5% · @ 3.78x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Real Madrid 2–0 Real Oviedo
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+