> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 17 May, 17:00 UTC
Real Oviedo vs Alavés
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Alavés' superior motivation and marginally better xG (1.25 vs 1.18) make the draw-or-away result (X2) the sharp play at 85% probability despite Oviedo's home advantage.
Win probability
31.4% home33.8% draw34.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Real OviedostepAlavés
1.09Base xG · rolling 26-match1.30
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.18Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.25
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
11
7
3
1
1
10
13
8
3
1
2
6
8
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Real Oviedo 0–1 Alavés
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+