> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 17 May, 01:30 UTC
Real Salt Lake vs Colorado Rapids
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Real Salt Lake's 0.41 xG advantage combined with 81% Over 1.5 Goals probability makes backing the total the most reliable angle despite balanced win odds.
Win probability
44.0% home29.0% draw27.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Real Salt LakestepColorado Rapids
1.60Base xG · rolling 26-match1.38
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.73Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.32
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
6
4
2
1
1
8
11
7
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
1
3
4
5
4
2
1
4
2
2
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Real Salt Lake 2–1 Colorado Rapids
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+