FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 14 May 2026
Real Salt Lake 3–0 Houston Dynamo FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Salt Lake at 46%, draw at 29%, Houston Dynamo FC at 25%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Real Salt Lake.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lake win
46%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
FC win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.76 – 1.26
Total 3.02
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.47x
- 1X✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Real Salt Lake's 0.5 xG advantage with 52% win probability offers value at standard home odds despite Houston's defensive solidity."