> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Saturday 09 May, 19:00 UTC
Real Sociedad vs Real Betis
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
38.8% home27.7% draw33.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Real SociedadstepReal Betis
1.62Base xG · rolling 26-match1.68
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.75Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.62
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
3
6
5
2
1
1
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10
8
4
2
1
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5
9
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3
5
4
2
1
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1
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2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 8.5 SOT + X2
Model 30.9% · @ 3.24x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Real Sociedad 2–2 Real Betis
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+