FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Real Sociedad 2–2 Real BetisMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Sociedad at 39%, draw at 28%, Real Betis at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Real Sociedad to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sociedad win
39%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Betis win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.75 – 1.62
Total 3.36
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 40%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.24x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✗
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
- X2✓