FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Red Bull New York 0–2 FC DallasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Red Bull New York at 29%, draw at 23%, FC Dallas at 48%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Dallas.
> Pre-match probability vs result
York win
29%
Draw
23%
Dallas win
48%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.79 – 2.30
Total 4.08
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 91%
✓ Won
Value
1X
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
BTTS No
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won