> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 02 May, 23:30 UTC
Red Bull New York vs FC Dallas
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
29.2% home22.9% draw47.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Red Bull New YorkstepFC Dallas
1.65Base xG · rolling 26-match2.39
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.79Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.30
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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6
0
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1
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7
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3
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1
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1
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2
1
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5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Red Bull New York 0–2 FC Dallas
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+