> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 16 May, 23:30 UTC
Red Bull New York vs New York City FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
NYCFC's away value at 45% probability with nearly identical xG (1.60 vs 1.62) makes the draw-heavy win distribution exploitable for an underdog backing.
Win probability
35.9% home28.6% draw35.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Red Bull New YorkstepNew York City FC
1.50Base xG · rolling 26-match1.67
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.62Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.60
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Red Bull New York 1–1 New York City FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+