Bawler / USA: MLS / New York City
Team profile

New York City Prediction

Per-game numbers from 53 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.7
a game
12.3 faced
On target
4.4
a game
4.3 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 53 matches
Next match
42%
New York City win chance
vs Philadelphia Union · Sun 16 Aug 22:00

New York City prediction: for New York City's next match — New York City vs Philadelphia Union on Sunday 16 Aug, 22:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a New York City win looks most likely (42%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

New York City defend well, conceding 1.16 expected goals per game — below the MLS average of 1.45. Next up is Philadelphia Union, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 42%.

New York City in numbers

53 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 1.6Away 1.3
4.4
Corners · per game
give up 5.4
Home 5.5Away 3.4
11.7
Shots · per game
faced 12.3
Home 13.3Away 10.1
4.4
On target · per game
faced 4.3
Home 4.7Away 4.1
Last 6 games
14 Aug
1-2
vs Necaxa
2-5
10 Aug
1-2
@ Cruz Azul
0-4
07 Aug
2-0
vs Santos Laguna
3-5
31 Jul
1-1
vs Toronto
-
25 Jul
3-1
vs Chicago Fire
1-2
22 Jul
2-1
@ Columbus Crew
0-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Philadelphia Union · Sunday 16 Aug, 22:00 UTC

Win
42%
This team
Draw
30%
Loss
28%
Opponent
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 77%
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How New York City compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.52
Above average
Goals against
1.16
Tighter than most
Record
4W 3D 4L
11 settled
Real goals
1.5 – 1.3
For / against, per match
Scored1.52
Conceded1.16

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.16 xG per match · -0.29 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 86% of the time on New York City fixtures (6/7).
Tough market: Result
New York City matches give the model a harder read here — 1/4 (25%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.
Squad availability · New York City vs Philadelphia Union
Fetching squad availability…

Injuries, suspensions and doubts for both squads, from FotMob. Updates as kickoff nears.

How Bawler has done on New York City

64%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 11
Goals (Over/Under)86%6/7
Result25%1/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Thu 20 Aug@ FC Cincinnati
Sun 23 Aug@ New England Revolution

Recent matches (last 10)

Sat 01 Augvs Toronto FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Julvs Chicago Fire FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Jul@ Columbus Crew
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 May@ Nashville SC
High confidence: Over 2.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Red Bull New York
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 14 May@ Charlotte FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 Mayvs Columbus Crew
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 Mayvs DC United
High confidence: 1X
Sun 19 Aprvs Charlotte
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 05 Aprvs St. Louis City
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INBénie TraoréLWfrom Basel€8.8m
INLuighiSTfrom PalmeirasLoan
OUTStrahinja TanasijevicCBto YelimayFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on New York City and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly