New York City
New York City operate as a creative attacking side with an xG profile that favours them in open play—1.64 goals scored versus 1.03 conceded—yet recent form has been inconsistent, yielding just two wins from seven settled matches despite the underlying numbers. The club's last five fixtures show little rhythm, alternating between wins and draws before two consecutive losses that suggest execution gaps relative to their expected performance. With no immediate fixtures on the horizon, Bawler's 43 per cent banker hit rate on City matches reflects the volatility of backing a team whose output rarely matches its process.
How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals New York City were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the USA: MLS average — if the bar extends past the diamond, New York City are above average there.
How to read this: the solid line is the goals New York City actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.
How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from New York City's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.
When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a New York City fixture, the model lands 4 out of 8 (50%). This sits below the cross-league baseline — the model finds this team harder to read than most. Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.
How to read this: each row groups settled Banker picks Bawler issued on New York City fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for New York City matches.